Actually, I think football is too violent and should be abolished. Huge numbers of injuries occur, and the objective of tackling other players seems counterproductive to good sportsmanship. But I remain a fan. Please feel free to call me a hypocrite.
My Prognostication Qualifications (Or Lack Thereof)
Before making my 2021 preseason predictions for the UK Wildcats, I want to make it clear that I’ve never either coached or played a single game of football in my life. Nonetheless, despite this, over the years I’ve second-guessed decisions of referees and coaches many times.
Furthermore, I’ve frequently filled out preseason forecasts for the UK team’s season, typically for my own personal use. A few times my forecasts proved more accurate than those of media pundits from some major organizations; some other times my forecasts have proved embarrassingly inaccurate.
Overall Expectations for Kentucky This Season
Many expect Kentucky to be an improved team this season. I agree with such expectations. The Cats should do better than last season’s 5-6 record. And I hope for another bowl win--yes, the Cats received a bowl bid last year with a 4-6 record and won the bowl game.
This year I can visualize Kentucky finishing the regular season as poorly as 5-7 or as well as 11-1. I’m expecting 7-5.
Reasons for an improved record this year include the fact this year’s schedule includes four nonconference games that make the overall schedule less difficult than last year's all-SEC regular season schedule. The disappearance of SEC powerhouse foes Alabama and Auburn from the schedule helps. Incoming transfers and freshmen will help make Kentucky better too.
Without further ado, below I provide my amateur, poorly informed (how’s that for honesty?) predictions (guesses?) for how UK will perform this season:
Game By Game Predictions
September 4th, 2021, UK plays the University of Louisiana at Monroe at home, Kroger Field in Lexington, Kentucky. My guess is that (1) the Cats' opening opponent is better than many realize, (2) UK will face opening game jitters, and (3) the game will be closer than expected. I do believe Kentucky depth pulls out the win by a comfortable margin in the fourth quarter though. Indeed, if the Cats lose this season opener, it may not bode well for the rest of the season. But I expect UK to be 1-0 at the end of the day.
September 11th, 2021, Kentucky enjoys another home game, this time against the University of Missouri. Missouri is a good team, but not one of the best in the SEC. UK will use its home field advantage to go 2-0.
September 18th, 2021, a three-game home stand ends with a win over the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga. An easy UK victory puts the Cats at 3-0.
September 25th, 2021, UK begins its toughest weeks of the campaign with a road trip to the University of South Carolina. UK can win this game and may even be favored by many (most?), but I don’t believe that Kentucky will prevail. South Carolina will be a bit better and the Cats fall to 3-1.
October 2nd, 2021, Kentucky is back home to face the University of Florida. This game is potentially winnable, but UK doesn’t beat Florida often. Florida is likely to be deservedly ranked high in the polls, and will defeat the Wildcats by a comfortable margin, as Kentucky falls to 3-2.
October 9th, 2021, Kentucky remains at home for the 5th time in its first 6 games, facing Louisiana State University (LSU). It’s another winnable game, but I expect a good LSU team to be a bit better than my beloved Kentucky team. UK slips to 3-3.
October 16th, 2021, Kentucky has its toughest game of the season on the road at the University of Georgia. It won’t be a blowout, at least I hope not, but it will be clear Georgia is the better team as UK falls to 3-4.
October 30th, 2021, Kentucky journeys on the road to face a surprisingly good Mississippi State team and falls to 3-5. Some pessimistic fans may wonder if Kentucky will win another game this season, but the best is yet to come. The Cats will finish strong as I see it.
November 6th, 2021, UK is back home against the University of Tennessee. Traditionally Tennessee has been a tough opponent for Kentucky. But in recent years Tennessee has not been a football powerhouse. This year the Cats will prevail with the win to go 4-5.
November 13th, 2021, Kentucky will play Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Commodores are not as bad as many people think, but they are not as good as the Wildcats eiher, as Kentucky wins to go 5-5.
November 20th, 2021, Kentucky is back home to face New Mexico State University and win convincingly to be up to 6-5.
November 27th, 2021, the Big Blue Machine goes on the road to take on a reasonably good University of Louisville team. I expect the Cats to play one of their best games of the season, win, and finish the regular season at 7-5.
Kentucky will receive a bowl bid, and a win can (will?) enable the Cats to finish the season at 8-5.
Caution About My Forecast
Forecasting football seasons isn’t easy. Surprises often occur.
I’ve been a UK fan since at least 1973, as mentioned earlier. UK’s most successful season during that time was 1977. The 1977 season began with high expectations. But in the second game that year the Cats went on the road to Baylor and suffered an embarrassing upset. Weaknesses on offense and turnovers by special teams led to a 21-6 loss; while the defense played well, a star defensive player who had been touted by media as a potential All-American, linebacker Jim Kovach, suffered a season ending injury. Media forecasts for the season dropped dramatically, as did my expectations.
However, that UK team did not lose another game. It won 9 in a row to finish 10-1, including an upset of then ranked #4 Penn State on the road. Another highlight of that great Kentucky season was whipping Georgia on the road 33-0. Alas, due to NCAA probation the Wildcats did not get a bowl bid.
My point is to expect surprises this season too. The uncertainties of COVID-19 and its Delta variant add extra unpredictability to this season.
Closing Thoughts
I still own a shirt I purchased as a freshman University of Kentucky student back in 1976 to wear to home UK football games on warm afternoons. It is pictured below.
NOTE: This article was last revised on July 23, 2021.
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